Calculations and references

Gold Coast Light Rail Population calculations for the 4 Stages

 

Full suburbs have been used, not just a strip 800m either side of the tram line, so numbers are overstated and adjusted slightly for ease of calculations.

 

https://profile.id.com.au/gold-coast/about?WebID=510

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/data-maps/nyc-population/population-facts.page

 

Population used Population Hectares Density/area hectares/area square kilometres
Stage1  
Broadbeach waters 8,161 532 15.33/hect, 532hect, 5skm
Mermaid beach 12,653 300 42/hect, 300hect, 3sqkm
Surfers paradise 17,833 582 30.65/hect/582 hect or 6 sqkm
Main beach 4,132 318 13/hect/318hect or 3 sqkm
Mermaid waters 12,703 707 17.96/hect, 707 hectar, 7sqkm
Southport south 17,833 666 26.76/hect/666hect or 7sqkm
Southport north 15,310 761 20/hect, 761 hect, 8 sqkm
TOTAL 95,000 88,625 3,866 22.9/hectare
Stage 2  
Parkwood   9,063 623 14.55/hect, 623hect , 6sqkm
Arundel 10,645 971 10.95, 971, 10sqkm
Helensvale 17,746 1993 8.77, 1993, 20sqkm
TOTAL 37,454 37,454 3,587 10.44/hectare
     
Stage 3  
Mermaid beach 12653 12,653 300 42.13, 300, 3sqkm
Mermaid waters 12 12,703 707 17.9, 707, 7sqkm
Miami 7095 7,095 300 23.63, 300, 3sqkm
Burleigh heads 8264 9,134 849 10.76, 849, 8sqkm
Burleigh waters 14,745 675 21.84, 675, 7sqkm
TOTAL 55,000 56,330 2,831  19.88/hectare
Stage 4    
Palm beach 15517 632 24, 632, 6sqkm
Elanora 12534 889 14, 889, 9sqkm
Tugun 11732 792 14.82, 792 hect, 8sqkm
Total 40,000 39783 2,313
Grand Total 227,000 222,192 12,597 17.6/hectare
Future Population 1,200,000 12,597 95/hectare
Future Population 2,400,000 12,597 190/hectare
New York City 27,000 people per square mile (1 square mile is 258.999 hectares) 104 people per hectare

 

Population and Density

Current Coolangatta to Helensvale   227,000

Population needed

  • 26% patronage 1.2 million
  • 13% patronage 2.4 million

Population density now      17.3/hectare

Population density needed

26% patronage                     95/hectare

13% patronage                     190/hectare

 

Population density of New York City     104/hectare

manhattan, 25,846 per sqkm                  258/hectare

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/data-maps/nyc-population/census2010/t_pl_p5_nyc.pdf

 

 

Gold Coast Light Rail A Private Review Feb 2018
ref Construction Stage1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4   Total stage 1 and 2 Total stage 3 and 4   Total length
million million million million   million million   million
Construction cost 2,240 650 1,050 1,760   2890 2810   5700
1 Goldlinq Construction 1,400 420 683 1,144
Gold Link const interest 0 but belived to be 100% draw down from commencement
2 Government construction 800 230 368 616 stages 3 and 4 proportion Goldlinq 65% and government 35% on stage 1 costs
3 Government share Interest 40 $800@5% for 2.5 years and 40%  of total
kilometres 13.0 7.3 7.0 11.0 20.3 18 38
rate per kilometre 172 89 150 160 142 156 149
Interest
Stage1 stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4   Total Stage 1 and 2 Total Stage 3 and 4   Total project 5
      million million million million   million million   million
Total interest per annum 171 50 81 136   221 218   439
4 Goldlinq 129 39 63 105 168 168 336 Goldlinq construction share  at 9.22% for 1 year (switching to govt funding over 15 years but not calculated here)
5 Government 42 12 18 31 54 49 103 Govt share at 5% per annum
Operating
Stage1 stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4   Total Stage 1 and 2 Total Stage 3 and 4   Total project
million million million million   million million   million
6 Operating Annual costs 85 22 21 33   107 54   161 Stage 1 as reported 2,3,and 4 at $3 mllion per km (50% of stage 1)
Combined Interest and operating costs per annum
Stage1 stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4   Total Stage 1 and 2 Total Stage 3 and 4   Total project  
      million million million million   million million   million
7 Total Operating costs per annum 256 72 102 169   328 272   600 interest plus operating cost eg stage 1 199 plus 85
Passengers Required
Stage1 stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4   Total Stage 1 and 2 Total Stage 3 and 4   Total project amount/$5/365 days
8 Operating and interest costs 140,318 39,520 56,056 92,754   179,838 148,810   328,648
per year 65,640,800 54,315,660 119,956,460
Number crunching
Stage1 stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Stage 1 and 2 Total Stage 3 and 4 Total project
Cost per day 701,589 197,600 280,278 463,772 899,189 744,050 1,643,239
Cost per kilometre 19.7M 9.9M 14.6M 15.4M 16.2M 15.1M 15.7M
Population at 26% patronage 539,684 152,000 215,599 356,748 691,684 572,346 1,264,030
Population at 13% patronage 1,079,368 304,000 431,197 713,495 1,383,368 1,144,693 2,528,060
Passengers per day 140,318 39,520 56,056 92,754 179,838 148,810 328,648
Trams at 50% capacity (154)/hour over 18 hours 51 14 20 33 65 54 119
Trams per minute 1.2 4.2 3.0 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.5
Trams per kilometre 3.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1
Population Density/hectare 22.9 10.4 19.9 17.6 17.6/hectar
Population Density Required at 26% Patronage 95/hectare
Population Density Required at 13% Patronage 190/hectare
New York City Density 104/hectare
A guess at Value Capture, based on the 38.3 kilometres
Interest and operataing costs, no allowance for income. 599,782,300
Current population 227,000
Cost per person 2,642 per year
Per family of 3 7,927
Tram/Bus
Tram Bus
Tram/Bus Cost 5,000,000 300,000
Passengers 309 45
Cost per passenger (309) 16,181 6,666
Seats 80 45
Costs per seat 62,500 6,666
Purchase buses per tram 16
Carrying capacity per $5 million 309 720